Eugene Fama Famous Quotes
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I don't know what a credit bubble means. I don't even know what a bubble means. These words have become popular. I don't think they have any meaning.
State constitutions typically provide that the state first has to service its debt, then make it pension payments, and then pay for services. What we don't know is whether that order will be enforced. And ultimately, the busted state is going to be looking to the federal government for a bailout. Think Greece, but on a much bigger scale.
Active management is a zero-sum game before cost, and the winners have to win at the expense of the losers.
I'd compare stock pickers to astrologers but I don't want to bad mouth astrologers.
Economies typically do not function well in hyperinflation. The real value of government debt might disappear, but the economy is likely to disappear with it.
An investor doesn't have a prayer of picking a manager that can deliver true alpha.
The efficient market theory is one of the better models in the sense that it can be taken as true for every purpose I can think of. For investment purposes, there are very few investors that shouldn't behave as if markets are totally efficient.
People are always saying that prices are too high. When they turn out to be right, we anoint them. When they turn out to be wrong, we ignore them. They are typically right and wrong about half the time.
I don't think the Federal Reserve has any role in how high rates are right now. I don't understand why everyone is paying attention to this tapering. The Fed is using one kind of bond to buy another kind of bond. What's the big deal, and why is anyone taking the Fed seriously?
After taking risk into account, do more managers than you'd see by chance outperform with persistence? Virtually every economist who studied this question answers with a resounding 'no.'
People don't walk away from their homes unless they can't make the payments. That's an indication that we are in a recession.
I don't believe anyone wants to hear what I have to say.