Expected Utility Quotes

Human individuals and human organizations typically have preferences over resources that are not well represented by an "unbounded aggregative utility function". A human will typically not wager all her capital for a fifty-fifty chance of doubling it. A state will typically not risk losing all its territory for a ten percent chance of a tenfold expansion. [T]he same need not hold for AIs. An AI might therefore be more likely to pursue a risky course of action that has some chance of giving it control of the world. ~ Nick Bostrom

choices are based upon expected utility. And once you have had experience with particular restaurants, CDs, or movies, future choices will be based upon what you remember about these past experiences, in other words, on their remembered utility. ~ Barry Schwartz

You know what? This isn't about your feelings. A human life, with all its joys and all its pains, adding up over the course of decades, is worth far more than your brain's feelings of comfort or discomfort with a plan. Does computing the expected utility feel too cold-blooded for your taste? Well, that feeling isn't even a feather in the scales, when a life is at stake. Just shut up and multiply. ~ Eliezer Yudkowsky

If you want to maximize your expected utility, you try to save the world and the future of intergalactic civilization instead of donating your money to the society for curing rare diseases and cute puppies. ~ Eliezer Yudkowsky

Although a large branch of game theory is devoted to the study of expected utility, we generally consider each player's payoffs as a ranking of his most preferred outcome to his least preferred outcome. ~ William Spaniel

Jay came over as soon as Violet called him; she didn't even have to give him a reason. He was there in less than ten minutes.
Of course, he'd heard about what had happened to Hailey. Everyone had. Buckley was a small town, and news traveled fast . . . especially bad news.
When he got there she told him what she was thinking about doing. It was nothing dangerous, at least as far as she was concerned, and she hadn't expected Jay to disagree with her about it. So when he did, she was more than a little bit surprised by his stubborn reaction.
"No way," he insisted, and his voice left little room for argument. "There is no way you're going to go around looking for this guy."
Violet was shocked by the tone of his voice, and by the harsh look he shot at her. She thought maybe he misunderstood her plan, so she tried to explain it to him again. "Jay, I'm only going to public places, like malls and parks, to see if I can get a feeling for who this guy is. Who knows, maybe he goes to places like that to find them, maybe he hands out there waiting to pick out a girl to . . . you know, kidnap." She tried to make her argument sound logical, but there was a desperate edge to her voice. "I'm not going out alone . . . you can go with me. We'll just hang out at different places to see if we can find him. And if we do, we'll call my uncle. It's not like we'd do anything stupid."
"'Anything stupid' would be going out to look for a killer. I won't let you go looking for t ~ Kimberly Derting

Because subjects like literature and art history have no obvious material pay-off, they tend to attract those who look askance at capitalist notions of utility. The idea of doing something purely for the delight of it has always rattled the grey-bearded guardians of the state. Sheer pointlessness has always been a deeply subversive affair. ~ Terry Eagleton

She shot me the glare I'd expected. "You're not sleeping in here!"
"Yes, I am."
"No."
"Yes."
"No."
"Yes." I grabbed her hand to stop her from signing again. "It's late, and we have a date tomorrow night."
Her eyes grew wide as she yanked her hand from my grasp. "We do not have a date."
"Yes, we do. ~ Aly Martinez

If I can keep writing just one good page a day, I will have 15 published novels in my expected lifetime. Tick, tick, tick... ~ Barry James Hickey

I was afraid of not living up to what people expected me to be. ~ Brigitte Bardot

A pleasure long expected is deare enough sold. ~ George Herbert

Some people pay a compliment as if they expected a receipt. ~ Kin Hubbard

He had probably made a mistake by requesting that Annabel read to them, but his intention was to behave as usual. Or, at least that was one intention. He also wanted to keep her as near to him as he could. He could see she was rattled, even more than he expected, and he hoped to be a calming influence on her. ~ Melanie Dickerson

Well, at the end of our movie Fireproof, we released a book that my brother Stephen and I wrote called The Love Dare. It was for couples. That book had a much larger impact than we expected. As a matter of fact, if I could use the term "overwhelmed," we were. The book went on to become a New York Times bestseller and sold over five-million copies and is now in 28 different countries and languages. So, we were blessed and just surprised at how well that did. ~ Alex Kendrick

Things. They came up. That what things do. They come up. I can't be expected to keep track of them all ~ Neil Gaiman

When we pick up the newspaper at breakfast, we expect - we even demand - that it brings us momentous events since the night before ... We expect our two-week vacations to be romantic, exotic, cheap, and effortless..We expect anything and everything. We expect the contradictory and the impossible. We expect compact cars which are spacious; luxurious cars which are economical. We expect to be rich and charitable, powerful and merciful, active and reflective, kind and competitive. We expect to be inspired by mediocre appeals for excellence, to be made literate by illiterate appeals for literacy ... to go to 'a church of our choice' and yet feel its guiding power over us, to revere God and to be God. Never have people been more the masters of their environment. Yet never has a people felt more deceived and disappointed. For never has a people expected so much more than the world could offer. ~ Daniel J. Boorstin

I actually got a nice surprise about being a mother because I expected it to be harder and to have to make more adaptations. ~ Paula Radcliffe

Helen, don't."
"I thought it was only a misunderstanding. I thought if I spoke to you directly, everything would be s-sorted out, and - " Another sob choked her. She was so consumed by emotion that she was only vaguely aware of Rhys hovering around her, reaching for her and snatching his hands back.
"No. Don't cry. For God's sake, Helen - "
"I didn't mean to push you away. I didn't know what to do. How can I make you want me again?"
She expected a jeering reply, or perhaps even a pitying one. The last thing she expected was his shaken murmur.
"I do want you, cariad. I want you too damned much."
She blinked at him through a bewildered blur, breathing in mortifying hiccups, like a child. In the next moment, he had hauled her firmly against him.
"Hush, now." His voice dropped to a deeper octave, a brush of dark velvet against her ears. "Hush, bychan, little one, my dove. Nothing is worth your tears."
"You are. ~ Lisa Kleypas

The other scary beauty of life, which I probably should have expected to discover in all of this, was how heightened circumstances, such as overlapping tragedy and success, sharpen your vision and shorten your patience for baloney and hogwash. ~ Tig Notaro

The photograph dragged Maneck's eyes back to it, to the event that was once unsettling, pitiful, and maddening in its crystalline stillness. The three sisters looked disappointed, he thought, as though they had expected something more than death, and discovered that was all there was. He found himself admiring their courage. What strength it must have taken, he thought , to unwind those sarees from their bodies, to tie the knots around their necks. Or perhaps it had been easy, once the act acquired the beauty of logic and the weight of sensibleness. ~ Rohinton Mistry

Life is not what you expected it to be. ~ Lauren Bacall

Expectation wasn't just about what people expected of you. It was about what you expected of yourself. ~ Brandon Sanderson

I would say that one of the really special gifts about playing an athlete is that it's the best motivation you'll ever have to get in top shape and stay in top shape because you know that you're going to be expected to deliver. ~ Holt McCallany

A student once asked anthropologist Margaret Mead, "What is the earliest sign of civilization?" The student expected her to say a clay pot, a grinding stone, or maybe a weapon.

Margaret Mead thought for a moment, then she said, "A healed femur."

A femur is the longest bone in the body, linking hip to knee. In societies without the benefits of modern medicine, it takes about six weeks of rest for a fractured femur to heal. A healed femur shows that someone cared for the injured person, did their hunting and gathering, stayed with them, and offered physical protection and human companionship until the injury could mend.

Mead explained that where the law of the jungle - the survival of the fittest - rules, no healed femurs are found. The first sign of civilization is compassion, seen in a healed femur. ~ Ira Byock

At no period of [Michael Faraday's] unmatched career was he interested in utility. He was absorbed in disentangling the riddles of the universe, at first chemical riddles, in later periods, physical riddles. As far as he cared, the question of utility was never raised. Any suspicion of utility would have restricted his restless curiosity. In the end, utility resulted, but it was never a criterion to which his ceaseless experimentation could be subjected. ~ Abraham Flexner

Not the first half you might have expected, even though the score might suggest that it was. ~ John Motson

For the next several years, they gathered critical intelligence on German troop movements, blew up fuel depots, stole Nazi uniforms, and sabotaged lorries. Once, Avi and Jacob were ordered to attack a police station and grab any uniforms they could. They captured two police uniforms, two pistols, a small box of ammunition, and a money box with over ten thousand francs inside. What's more, they escaped with a bonus neither of them had expected - a stash of six thousand food-ration coupons, which they promptly gave to Morry to distribute among the various Jewish Resistance members scattered throughout the country. ~ Joel C. Rosenberg

I know how lucky I am. I never take it for granted. In this country [USA], anything can happen - anybody can be what they want to be. All I ever wanted was to be a good husband and father, a good chef, and to have my own restaurant. And the celebrity was never expected. Wouldn't have even dared dream of it. And here I am. So anyone's dreams can come true. And I'm very, very grateful for everything that's come my way. I thank everyone who enjoys what I do. ~ Guy Fieri

With body, mind, and spirit functioning perfectly as a coordinated whole, what else could reasonably be expected other than an active, alert, disciplined person? ~ Joseph Pilates

The poet will maintain serenity in spite of all disappointments. He is expected to preserve an unconcerned and healthy outlook over the world, while he lives. ~ Henry David Thoreau

When we heard at first [John Brown] was dead, one of my townsmen observed that "he died as the fool dieth"; which, pardon me, for an instant suggested a likeness in him dying to my neighbor living. Others, craven-hearted, said disparagingly, that "he threw his life away" because he resisted the government. Which ways have they thrown their lives, pray? ---such would praise a man for attacking singly an ordinary band of thieves and murderers. I hear another ask, Yankee-like, "What will he gain by it?" as if he expected to fill his pockets by their enterprise. Such a one has no idea of gain but in this worldly sense. If it does not lead to a "surprise" party, if he does not gain a new pair of boots, or a vote of thanks, it must be a failure. "But he won't gain anything by it." Well, no, I don;t suppose he could get four-and-sixpence a day for being hung, take the year round; but he stands a chance to save a considerable part of his soul- and what a soul!- when you do not. No doubt you can get more in your market for a quart of milk than a quart of blood, but that is not the market heroes carry their blood to. ~ Henry David Thoreau

There is in the human race some dark spirit of recalcitrance, always pulling us in the direction contrary to that in which we are reasonably expected to go. ~ Max Beerbohm

A small group of horsemen were approaching the house, their pace slow enough to match Javelin, whose rider slumped over his neck.
Surely the Herrani wouldn't cheer if Arin was dead, or dying?
Fool, Kestrel told herself. Dead men can't ride.
A storm of feeling confused her, and Kestrel didn't know if her emotions were what they ought to be, because she didn't know what she felt. She couldn't even think.
Then the horses stopped. Arin slipped off Javelin, and there was a scuffle among the Herrani as each fought to get to him first. People supported him, nudged shoulders under his arms.
Arin's face was white with pain and blackened with patches of dirt and bruises. His torn clothes were stained crimson. Bright, bloody flags. One foot was bare.
He tipped his head back, caught Kestrel's gaze, and smiled.
Kestrel shut the window and shut her heart, for what she felt when she saw Arin limp up the path wasn't anything she had expected. She shouldn't feel this, not this:
A stark, shattering relief. ~ Marie Rutkoski

You might think that, by now, people would have become accustomed to the idea of natural catastrophes. We live on a planet that is still cooling and which has fissures and faults in its crust; this much is accepted even by those who think that the globe is only six thousand years old, as well as by those who believe that the earth was "designed" to be this way. Even in such a case, it is to be expected that earthquakes will occur and that, if they occur under the seabed, tidal waves will occur also. Yet two sorts of error are still absolutely commonplace. The first of these is the idiotic belief that seismic events are somehow "timed" to express the will of God. Thus, reasoning back from the effect, people will seriously attempt to guess what sin or which profanity led to the verdict of the tectonic plates. The second error, common even among humanists, is to borrow the same fallacy for satirical purposes and to employ it to disprove a benign deity. ~ Christopher Hitchens

Cassia had a feeling Kane might not follow her instructions to the letter, but she never expected him to come barreling into the docking lot with Arabelle hoisted over one shoulder, shielding his head with his free arm and yelling like his pants were on fire. Behind him, Doran and Solara ran through the open doorway, each armed with a stolen pulse pistol and firing indiscriminately at someone out of view.
So much for smooth negotiating. ~ Melissa Landers

Saying goodbye to Nina is both bittersweet and beautiful. After six-plus years together, the entire cast and crew of The Vampire Diaries has reached a level of closeness that I don't think any of us ever expected. Nina is excited to spread her wings, get some rest, travel the world and also take it by storm, and we support her a thousand-fold. We will miss Nina and the four hundred characters she played, but we look forward to the insane and exciting challenge of continuing to tell stories of our Salvatore Brothers and our much-loved and gifted ensemble. ~ Julie Plec

LaShon knew that there was no way that was going to happen. She had dealt with her fair share of jail relationships and every time the dude came home he expected to pick up things where they left off at as if nothing ever happened. ~ Kevina Hopkins

You, whom I have always loved and never found, you whom I expected to see at the end of the rails beyond the horizon - ~ Ayn Rand

I mean it wasn't an empty hole, there was al­ways some­thing in it, but it was never right. It never fit. I went to col­lege for a short time, until I sat back one day and said to my­self: An­drew, what the fuck are you doing here? And it clicked in my head that I wasn't there be­cause it's what I wanted, I was there be­cause it's what peo­ple ex­pected, even peo­ple I don't know, so­ci­ety. It's what peo­ple do. ~ J.A. Redmerski

Michael Clarke Duncan and I met at a music festival that was honoring films, and we happened to be seated next to each other at the dinner, and we just hit it off and kept in touch ever since. He was just the gentle giant in real life like you would have expected him to be. ~ Nikki Blonsky

She was fast approaching thirty, and with that impending birthday the way she thought of her own life was beginning to change. When she was twenty, she thought of people in their thirties as, well, old: after all, they had lived as long as she had and half as long again, and so they must have been tired, with the beginnings of aches in their bones and the first intimations of their own mortality.

But the peculiar horror of growing older was not what she expected. In fact, she felt the same age as she had eight years ago, and twenty-eight years of life had managed to compress themselves into a life-span that once comfortably held twenty. It wasn't that she was getting older, but that the years were getting shorter, and were therefore more precious. You had to use them sparingly. ~ Dexter Palmer

I'd need either really high heeled shoes to avoid tripping over, or I was just expected to shuffle along like a slug... ~ Nicola Claire

Her family was counting on her - to be responsible, to get good grades, to follow the rules, to be the good example. And more important, she expected those things of herself. ~ Michelle Madow